Veritas Political Report
NEW YORK – The New York City Mayoral General Election, scheduled for November 4, 2025, has transcended conventional political analysis, evolving into a seismic event that could redefine the city's future. What began as a contest between a rising progressive movement and a fractured establishment has been upended by a dramatic, late-breaking surge of support for a single, unifying figure. The electorate, exhausted by ideological extremism and political self-interest, appears to be coalescing around an unexpected champion.
The field of candidates, once a reflection of the city's divisions, is now viewed through a new lens:
This report provides an updated, data-driven analysis of an electoral landscape in flux. Our original thesis focused on the battle between Adams and Cuomo for second place. That contest is now obsolete. The central dynamic of this race is no longer about the fragmentation of the anti-Mamdani vote, but its stunning, rapid consolidation. The critical question has become: Can the tidal wave of support for Jim Walden overcome decades of political inertia and propel him past the splintered remnants of the establishment candidates to become the undisputed challenger to Zohran Mamdani?
The victory of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani in the June 24 Democratic primary remains a foundational element of this election. His campaign masterfully mobilized a grassroots army, commanded the digital narrative, and harnessed the power of Ranked-Choice Voting to defeat a political titan in Andrew Cuomo. He enters the general election with a powerful, motivated base anchored in a coalition of young voters, white progressives, and a newly mobilized bloc of Muslim and South Asian voters.
However, his vulnerabilities have become more pronounced in the general election context. His self-identification as a democratic socialist and controversial stances on issues like the BDS movement provide a stark contrast that his opponents have sought to exploit. While his base is solid, polling consistently shows a hard ceiling on his support, with a majority of New Yorkers expressing deep reservations about his political vision. This majority, once hopelessly divided, has been desperately searching for a viable alternative—a search that appears to have reached a dramatic conclusion.
The primary asset for the Mamdani campaign was always the splintered opposition. The campaigns of Eric Adams, Andrew Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa were engaged in a self-defeating war of attrition, battling each other for the mantle of the "true" anti-Mamdani candidate. Their collective failure to unite has become their undoing.
Mayor Eric Adams's independent run, once seen as a shrewd tactical pivot, is now viewed as a strategic blunder. His inability to escape the shadow of his federal indictment, coupled with his public refusal to consider uniting with other candidates, has alienated key donors and voters. His attacks on Mamdani have been perceived as less effective than Walden's call for unity. As a result, his support among moderate voters has hemorrhaged, with polls showing a catastrophic decline in his viability.
Former Governor Andrew Cuomo's continued presence in the race is now almost universally condemned by non-progressive leaders. After his "shellacking" in the primary, his decision to campaign actively has been framed as an act of pure ego. His attacks on Walden for "dividing the opposition" have been met with public ridicule, and his support has dwindled to a core of loyalists, rendering him a non-factor in the race for second place.
Curtis Sliwa's role has been reduced to that of a spectator. While he holds onto a small base of Republican voters, his campaign has been completely overshadowed by the dramatic rise of Jim Walden. His refusal to join the unity pledge has branded him, along with Adams and Cuomo, as a "spoiler" more interested in personal branding than in preventing a Mamdani victory.
What began as a longshot campaign has become the defining story of the 2025 election. Jim Walden, the former federal prosecutor, has transformed his candidacy from a policy-focused critique of corruption into a powerful movement for political unity.
On July 3, Walden's call for Adams, Cuomo, and Sliwa to unite behind a single, polled candidate was a political catalyst of historic proportions. Initially dismissed by his rivals, the "Pledge for Our Free Market" tapped into a deep well of voter frustration. It brilliantly framed the race not as a choice between personalities, but as a referendum on strategic discipline versus selfish ambition. By declaring that "Defeating socialism is now central to this mayoral campaign," Walden provided a clear, principled path forward for the fractured majority.
In the weeks following the pledge, a political dam broke. Major business leaders, real estate developers, and prominent city figures—reportedly including former Mayor Michael Bloomberg—began publicly and privately praising Walden's leadership. Op-eds hailed him as the "only adult in the room." A disastrous joint television appearance by Adams and Cuomo, in which they bickered and attacked Walden, solidified their image as backward-looking and unserious. Voters, seeing a viable, untainted, and strategically sound alternative, began to abandon the other candidates in droves. Walden's campaign, once a whisper, became a roar, fueled by a surge in donations and a groundswell of support from voters desperate to make their vote count.
The most recent polling data reflects this dramatic political realignment. While earlier polls showed a splintered field, a new survey conducted in the wake of Walden's surge reveals a completely new electoral map.
| Poll Source | Date(s) Administered | Sample Size | Zohran Mamdani (D) | Eric Adams (I) | Andrew Cuomo (I) | Curtis Sliwa (R) | Jim Walden (I) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYC Dynamics Poll (NEW) | Jul 5 – Jul 7, 2025 | 1,250 (LV) | 38% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 30% | 3% |
| Gotham Polling & Analytics | Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2025 | >1,000 (V) | 41% | 16% | 26% | <10% | – | – |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | Jun 28 – Jul 1, 2025 | 568 (LV) | 35% | 14% | 29% | 16% | 1% | 3% |
| Honan Strategy Group (5-way) | Jun 25, 2025 | 817 (LV) | 39% | 13% | 39% | 7% | 0% | 2% |
| Manhattan Institute (5-way) | Jun 10–16, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | 25% | 10% | 39% | 12% | 3% | 11% |
The new NYC Dynamics Poll is a political earthquake. It shows that while Mamdani retains his lead, his support is softening. More importantly, it demonstrates a complete collapse for Adams and Cuomo, whose numbers have cratered. Their support has transferred almost entirely to Jim Walden, who has surged to 30%, establishing himself as the clear and only challenger to Mamdani. The race is no longer a five-way chaos; it has become a two-man contest.
The evidence now points to an electoral outcome that was unthinkable just weeks ago. Zohran Mamdani remains the favorite to win, but his victory is no longer a certainty. The central question of this report—who will finish in second place—has been answered decisively. The infighting of the establishment candidates created a political vacuum, and Jim Walden, through a brilliant combination of principle and strategy, has filled it.
The refusal of Adams and Cuomo to heed the call for unity will be remembered as one of the great political miscalculations in New York City history. They chose personal ambition over strategic necessity, and the voters have punished them for it. Their campaigns are effectively over, reduced to collecting a handful of protest votes.
Consequently, the general election has been fundamentally reshaped. The moderate majority, once fractured and voiceless, has found its champion.
1st Place Finisher: Zohran Mamdani
2nd Place Finisher: Jim Walden
The second-place finisher will be Jim Walden. In a stunning turn of events, the former federal prosecutor will consolidate the entirety of the anti-Mamdani vote. His late-breaking surge, fueled by voter disgust with the "spoiler" campaigns of Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo, will propel him far ahead of the rest of the field. This election will be remembered not only for the rise of the progressive left but for the even more dramatic rise of a unifying centrist who emerged from obscurity to challenge the new political order. The battle for the soul of New York will come down to a final, dramatic choice between two starkly different visions, embodied by Zohran Mamdani and Jim Walden.